Tuesday, 30 March 2010

Dreaming Betfair?

Well, Cheltenham has been and gone this year, and I had a great festival. I didn’t beat last years total or my best day, although I came close to beating my best day. The markets were strong, but not as strong as last year. I think this came down to a number of important factors – the favourites’ prices in quite a few of the races were quite high (above about 8.0); this means the big punters don’t need to put huge stakes down for decent returns, and it’s the same with bookmakers offsetting their liability; on-course punters will spread their money over the field, reducing the need for the on-course bookmakers to even need to consider it. I’m not an expert in how this field operates, but it seems to make sense. The markets (in general) also feel like there is much less ‘real money’, i.e non-traders’ money, making it more a fight than a well-interpreted market move judgement. This shouldn’t necessarily be taken as a bad thing, because money can still be made; it just means changing your approach to deal with the change in conditions. Aintree is on its way, which should be similarly as good as Cheltenham. I have a new best race total to beat – two of the races I traded on gave me perfect conditions and I made great decisions as well. I think I lost on just one race throughout the festival, I just couldn’t get to grips with it, sometimes you can be out of sync with the movement in a market, and that’s exactly what happened.

On to my choice of the post title, I forgot to mention about many Betfair dreams I used to have. When I started out, a few months in I started dreaming I was trading and I remember imagining myself mid-way through a trade left needing to back thinking “back, back, back!!!” I remember waking up a few times where I actually tried to click with my right hand but obviously wasn’t sat next to my computer. Thankfully I don’t have as many dreams like that as I used to. If you’re having the Betfair dreams I’m sure you’re deadly keen to learn. Other dreams that aren’t so bad, involve me placing a huge order, forgetting to trade out, and the horse winning/losing to bag me a huge profit! I would never intentionally let a half-completed trade go in-play because the moment you do that, and you don’t know anything about horse racing, you might as well be sat at a roulette wheel in Las Vegas hoping for evens to come up.

No comments: