Tuesday, 18 August 2009

Speculation

There is a lot of speculation out there at the moment - and I just want to set things straight. Exchange Secrets (ES) is a new idea that has never been done before, and when Dave approached me with the idea a couple of months ago, I thought this could work because whenever Dave was with a client teaching 1-to-1 trading, we would often give out predictions as to the direction of the markets. We wouldn't get every race right, probably 50-65% of the markets we predicted were fairly accurate. Anyhow, our intentions are not to scam people, rather to help people; if you're not happy with the information then we are not tying you down to a years subscription or anything like that. If after a couple of months we find that the information isn't really helping people, we will do our best to adapt the information to help people the most, i.e. try and be more accurate in some areas or word things differently. If people aren't happy at all after a couple of months of the site being up, we will not waste our time or anyone else's time! It is genuinely out there to help people rather than deceive people and become a business adventure for myself, and see where it takes me.

From a personal point of view, if while I am providing this service it effects my trading to the extent that I'm losing out more than I gain, I probably won't continue, but there's only one way to find out! Money will always be flowing through the market no matter what advice is given out, so that neither increases or decreases someones ability to make money in the market and that's the reason I went ahead with it.

To verify my results there is a guy at Betfair who I spoke to on Sunday evening called Christopher Thomas. He sent me this email with the following P&L from 1st Janauary 2009 and said he can verify it; he's also sending the same thing via post, which I should get in the next couple of days.

I also reiterate that I don't work for Bet Angel in anyway. My link with them purely came from me sending an E-Mail to Peter W asking if it was okay to put up a link to my blog on the Bet Angel site in exchange for having the blog themed for Bet Angel - seeing that I already used the software and didn't have any readers I couldn't wait. The blog was not set up with the ES in mind, it was set up because trading is a lonely existence. When I started I had no idea how well people were doing outside of me apart from pinstickers blog. ES also has absolutely nothing to do with Peter Webb, it was purely a business adventure taken by myself and Dave.

One things for sure is that I'm not going anywhere because I have nothing to hide and my intentions are good. I want to continue my blog because I enjoy it. There will always be people who question anything and everything that happens - it's just crazy the extent to which it's all guesswork!

10 comments:

Mark Iverson said...

Hi Adam,

You really should stop trading Golf - it's making a dent in your bank ;-)

Anonymous said...

Hi Adam,

Firstly, many thanks for taking the time to openly address the concerns you undoubtedly received via the comments section of your ES blog entry.

The thrust of my reply to you yesterday, was never driven by a desire to query your un-doubted success as a BF Trader.

Certainly, I am not one to
peruse over P&L entries, looking for errors that may indicate that they were adjusted by destop publishing tools.

[I mentioned Koo's thread in the general betting forum in my post from yesterday - and the ensuing "uproar" when allegations arose of P&L modification.]


I genuinely believe you are making these sums of money because a.) your posts are genuine [the entry/exit points posts for example, should be studied, digested and practised, etc, by all novice/struggler/ever-improving traders, for example - because they do, in the long-run, provide a sound trading edge].

In addition due to b.) I firmly believe BA would not be involved [and by involved I mean, Peter's replies to your blogs and the banner on your site, etc]

Thirdly c.) because of the link-up with Dave; I actually was due to take a 1-1 tutorial session with Dave in Dublin last May [and we were in the process of
planning same] - until my employer [and me!] were 'credit crunched' !! As such, I had to cancel the proposed session; however, the time spent planning
same via email with Dave convinced me of his credentals.

He wouldn't be involved, I believe, if your results were not real, and if this was a *scam*.

[DAVE: I'm the trader who was planning on putting you up in the Blanch Crowne Plaza - near The Aquatic Centre ;-) ]

As it happened, the amount of unexpected free-time I did have this Summer, allowed me to "nail" down a decent living from trading; my trading is ever-improving, in thanks to yours/Peters/Leon The Fixer/Adam Todd's blogs.

As an aside, I've found I can trade with BA/Gruss/BetTrader [I tried all 3, tbh] - but that's another matter.


Coming back to what I did [constructively, I hope you'll see] critique yesterday:-

It was that these blogs work best when they're aimed purely at traders wishing tohistorically record trades/analysis; interact with other traders; log their "trading journey", etc.

John O'Neill's died a death when people [possibly incorrecly] thought he was using his thoughts as advertising for his trading manual;

in addition, Leon The Fixer's was so popular because of his honestly and his stated intention never to attempt to profit from it.


Having said all of this, I wish you well in your future trading and to you & Dave, the succesful operation of ES.

I am glad that you have clarified the issue on annual subs [any traders who have heard of Vince Stanzione, may understand my initial scepticisim from yesterday - again, another tale!].

Indeed, when the flat season commences next April and we hit "trading high-season", I may indeed avail of the service myself; because whatever the pros and cons of my initial thoughts on ES - which in fairness, you have clarified today - some of the best BF trading months on the site will be actively sharing their knowledge on it.

I'd be grateful if you'd allow today's reply to your blog to be posted on your site.

Happy Trading,

Grimesy [BF Forums.]

Francis Leavey said...

Best wishes to both you and Dave Adam. One finds in life that people who might doubt others intentions are simply hiding from their own faulings.

cheers

Fran

Marc Owen Banks said...

Hi Adam,

I would suggest not trying to defend you decision with the business idea. It is something you have genuinly set up with your partner and will enjoy building. Its certain it has huge potential following the succes sof the blog and as a marketing excercise, lauched with perfect timing. There will always be critsism out there. Myself, i run a tipping service for horse racing and the age old question that will never go away is "If your so good at picking winners, why do you need to sell them, surely you can make enough money on your own"

I always give the same stock answer before expanding on it.

Its simple

"Because i can!!"

Nuber one, there is a market for tipsters who can make regular profit, and two there is demand. It would not work if i were not good at what i do, and likewise, if you dont have success with your venture it wont last, but im pretty confident looking at your track record here and the wide knowledge of yourself and your blog across the interenet, you will do very well indeed in the beginning. The acid test is keeping up the marketing, the blog is great for that, and ensuring the product satisfies, which i am sure it will.

Good luck with your venture, im sure you'll both do very well

Trading for me has been a very difficult learning curve being very much a backing based selector, but when i get in the zone and ensure my backs are covered earlier in the day and put to bed, i can close of the gambling side of my mind and make progress with my trading, the discipline is tricky to establish, i guess it took me a month fully to master it, now its just a matter of making the right decisions

Good luck and happy trading

Anonymous said...

I trust in you, Adam.

Beltrán.

Tony Christensen said...

Hej adam.
Well i really cant see this being a succes. Why?
There is only one way to become a succesfull trader, and that is study and practice, developing you own style of trading, if everybody is doing the same, it wont work.
If you want people to make lots off money on betfair, the best thing you can do is to make a lot of videos off you trading and shows us you egde.but you wont do that, all you really want is to make us pay for something, just to realize, we cant make any money on betfair because we chose the easy way(of cause thats not your fault).
Tell me is this the way you make your money, by studying wich way the markeds will go a long time in advance... no ?
Why on earth, do you think we could then.
I would be a little more ok with this if you had put up a tekst somewhere on the site.That you wouldnt want anybody to expect that this where a way to make a living, by following bettingexchange.com,as i know this is what all traders dreams of doing. they dont dream of being rippet off 55 pounds just to realize that it dosent work.
atleast you could offer a full refund if not happy with the service.
But anyway good luck with you trading.
Hope you take my post seriusly,
offcourse, im still a keen reader of your blog and will always bee.
your the best

Anonymous said...

Hi Adam,

I'm going to come onboard the new venture ES. I think it will help me build a profile of race types.

There will always be someone calling this a scam because the sad thing is this type of person wants instant results with no effort. It's much easier to blame someone else than actually step back and realise that it's your own shortcomings that are bringing failure. Add to this the faceless medium of blog posting and people suddenly grow a pair - which is probably the total opposite of what would happen if you had a face to face chat about it.

Here's to trying and testing!

Cheers,
Giveitago

Keith said...

Hey Adam. I've never doubted your a genuine guy if not a little quirky. I don't buy the consiracy theories that you are affiliated to Peter Webb in any way other than to use his Software, and I understand what you mean about trading being a lonely existance!

As a fellow Pro trader of some years I do not see how it could be even remotely possible for you to predict in advance the movement of the markets, there are just far too many variables which affect it. The problem is that the vast majority of ES subscribers will be relatively new to trading, and whilst 75% of your advice will be correct the newbies will struggle to see the danger signs in the other 25% of cases or may lack the dicipline to hedge the loss. The result will unfortunatly be that the 25% of losing races for them will far outweigh the 75% of winning ones in monetary terms. In all likelihood you'll be receiving some pretty irate emails before long. It's an interesting concept but I really don't see it working in any way. too much "guesswork" ;-)

If I'm wrong I'll come back here in a few months and congratulate you on this venture.

Anonymous said...

Signed up yesterday and got more than the subscription in one day.
Dont normally trade but play in-running from an exchange shop and get a good living.This site will just help pay all the expenses.

Good Luck

Adam Heathcote said...

Hi Mark, yeah not so good! That loss in the golf was me using huge stakes for an hour - not a wise idea!

Hi Grimesy, thanks for comment!

Thanks Marc, a wise comment, thank you! As I grow older I definitely see it more sensible to not justify yourself, especially if whatever you're doing is not trying to scam people or the likes!

Hi Tony, I think you're viewing it wrong! The advice is to give people confidence in the direction of the markets in possible scenarios which is what we advise on. If we gave out advice that was always right people would still lose! If somebody is not happy with the service, and haven't used more than 10 days of the service, we will more than happily refund them.

If a price was going to move from an average of 2.0 to 2.5, all the traders in the world wouldn't affect that happening, because in horse racing, it's the gamblers' money that ultimately changes the price, traders add certain degrees of predictability to the markets with patterns of movement etc. I think I'm digressing! I do make my money by predicting what will happen - if I didn't, it would all be guesswork!

Hi Keith, I agree with what you say about the guys new to trading still losing, but it's a better way for them to learn I think than on their own. The service is more than just advice, with a forum and other information we will accumulate for traders.