Thursday, 23 July 2009

Illness has struck

Last few days have seen me away from my computer. If I was ill before, depending on how bad I was feeling, I will always attempt to trade because the thought of taking a day of when it's not deserved is frustrating. This time though, I'm feeling absolutely drained - most definitely self-inflicted from an exhaustively draining day and a very late night out Monday; there's no sympathy for me. It's definitely not swine flu before anyone asks!

For the days I have trading over the last couple of weeks, which hasn't been that frequent, I've felt indifferent about the markets - meaning that I think they have just felt average in terms of movement and liquidity. Whilst thinking about it, I remember it took at least 4-6 months of full-time trading before I ever get a 'feel' of the markets. Up until then, I think I purely traded on factual information such as weight of money and graphing.

I hope I get better soon; I've really been missing out getting my new challenge progress on its way by the end of the year.


Francis Leavey said...

Get well soon Adam!


Anonymous said...

Hi, Adam!

Get well soon and back to the PC screen, trading and earning :-)

I must say that the thing that surprised me most about your trading were not the P&L screenshots (which obviously are out of this world for the average betfair scumbags/"traders"), but the presence of "clean sheet" days, as you call them. I find this truly and utterly remarkable. Not a single losing trade for a whole day !!!!!!! I think this fact alone makes you a real horse trading prodigy.

I went trough most of the old posts and it becomes clear that you are a natural intuitive trader. No complicated stats, techical analysis and all that. So my message to the other readers is: please ask questions (on this blog) that will only help you develop your own technique, and do not try to copy someone else's, that is not possible. After all, that is what Betfair is about-different views of the market. If "x" number of people start doing the same thing, a trend will develop, and surely a smart trader will spot the new trend and will ride it. What do you think happened to the weight of money? It is now officially the most unreliable indicator of all, why- too many unexperienced people look mostly at the WOM and other people "lure" them with false trades. And remember it is a zero sum game-for every winner there is a loser, of course the only real winner is Betfair (with their comission and the premium charge, but then again they have bills to pay and people to employ, so it is not all wasted). So the message from Adam's blog should be loud and clear to everyone: develop your own style (using your wits and discipline), and do not look for the "magic formula", as there is no such thing. Betfair is getting more and more competitive and anything that works now may not work in 6 months, so it will be non stop learning, there is no easy way of going "full time trading for a living", assuming that is what most of the blog readers want. And please guys, be positive, and that includes not being envious !!!

Adam, you do mention in one of the posts that you have 2 instances of Bet Angel running simultaneously. I was wondering-obviously you need a second pair of tools, do you have 2 extended ladders running, or maybe 2 triple ladders (for a total of 6 ladders for 6 different horses), just curious, also, this will double your data calls to the Betfair API, I am guessing you are not bothered and don't mind paying for data calls if it helps you trade, am I right? (of course you will only pay if both instances of the software refresh at the quickest rates).

Some people are not happy that you keep mentioning/advertising Bet Angel. I am a huge sceptic and always find flaws in things, but I think it is hands down the best Betfair software. Unless of course you pay programmers to develop your own custom build software, but the cost will be prohibitive for personal use. By the way anyone know how many people are using Bet Angel? And anyone know how many people trade on Betfair? And how many are winning, any record numbers/stats regarding this? Come on, shock me with some numbers. I think I read somewhere that there is a user that pays 6 figure premium charge...(I guess it means he earns seven figures).Just curious... But with single bets of £400 000 on the Wibledon matches (all won by the way, placed on Federer, could be bookies, could be a person), it is clear that for some big players Betfair is a good investment opportunity, if you can stomach the risk that is :-)

Thank you Adam for maintaining this blog, and I hope everyone makes sure it continues to be as informative and intelligent as it is at the moment.

Good luck to all (or at least half of all, cos half have to lose :-)

Traffic Trading said...

Sorry to hear you are ill Adam, I know the feeling all to well when you have had one too many and a late night, and the usual comment next day, I'm never drinking again :)

Sure you will get back to the swing of things in no time and complete your challenge by the end of the year. Also your previous post was interesting, will be sure to look out for any advice and tips you are offering. Shaun

Yuriy said...

You need a few days off.Everything will be fine. I believe in you.

Anonymous said...

Hi Adam sorry to hear you are unwell. I have been following your blog with interest. Perhaps the bout of ill health has been to over trading as nobody is a machine and no matter what anybody says full-time Betfair trading has to be one of the most stressful careers out there. Don't be fooled by the three hour work day either I recently say a piece on the Discovery Channel about container crane operators in Longbeach California which is the busiest container port in the U.S. and guess what they discovered that by reducing their shift to three hours they got the maximum amount of containers shifted by the operators. So seriously take some time off trading seven days a week is a punishing routine. Best of luck with the rest of your challenge and your yet to be announced coaching service.


RealDeal said...

Hope you get better!!!

Adam Heathcote said...

Hi Anonymous, I do have 2 instances of Bet Angel open. The second is fairly redundant though; I seldom use it. I have two enhanced ladders up, I enjoy seeing the charting & I've always used it and it's good to use what you're used to I guess.

Hi Anonymous2, thanks for the optimism!

..And thanks for everyone who hoped me to get better! I was feeling crappy for a week, I'm pretty sure it wasn't swine flu!