Monday, 1 June 2009

May

The pressure was really on for me in May. I had done so well in March and April, at the start of May I felt it was inevitable that I wouldn't do as well. I think that was my downfall, that mindset is not that of a winning one. Nevertheless, I still averaged £1,707 a day for the 18 full days I traded, consisting of 2 Monday's, 4 Tuesday's, 4 Wednesday's, 3 Thursday's, 4 Friday's and 1 Saturday; that's a respectable profit of £31,766.84 for the month. On the Friday just gone I let the heat get to me and I only just managed to keep the day profitable with £25!. my worst day for a while; maintaining my run of 79 consecutive profitable days. After writing this post I'm heading out to the shops to by a fan. Last year I did buy an expensive air conditioning unit, but it was so noisy, I never used it.

I averaged £76.54 per race over 415 horse races. That's nearly £30 less per race than last month. I put this down to there being no 3/4 day festival like Cheltenham or Aintree (the liquidity was very high at these two meetings on almost every race), as I nailed them this year! My confidence in March and April was very high, so May, I have to be honest, wasn't as high. My biggest challenge this summer is going to be keeping cool (literally), as the heat can really affect my decision making; living in a top flat where the heat rises to, and having my office facing the sun during trading hours doesn't help! I only traded 18 days this month; if the weather stays like this, I will probably be spending more time outside rather than inside. A slightly different approach than the other top traders out there.

16 comments:

RacingFerret said...

A couple of random observations-
31K - 20% premium charge is roughly 25K. If you averaged that for 10 months and took 2 months off you'd be on the same £250k a year salary that the Chief Operating Officer of the very large construction co. I work for earns. Only he has to give away 40-50% in tax! I'd say you're doing fine on that comparative basis.

79 days winning streak. Looking at this from a poker players perspective it is mind boggling. The best poker players in the world would kill for a 79 day winning streak. If your wins weren't so big I'd tempted to ask whether you were pushing your "edge" hard enough. In other words would you enter a trade you thought had a 60% chance of profit? How about 55% or 51%?? The downside of course is losing 20 "60% success" trades in a row could knock your confidence. Maybe it doesn't make sense to apply this way of thinking to trading, what do you think?

John G said...

Obviously well done, as usual. Your poor months(!) are what we all strive for.

When it comes to keeping cool, I often find that limiting the sunlight coming is works nearly as well. Get some rollerblinds which will allow breeze through, but not light. When you buy a fan you might also want to look at getting one of those plant misters to spray your face with. Does wonders with the fans breeze.

redbrix said...

great result Adam, keep up the inspirational work!
If the heat effects you that much why not find a serviced air conditioned office for 3 months? Shouldnt be too difficult to adapt it for your use if you use Slingshot.

Sim said...

Still to make 30k with no festivals during the month bodes well for future months when there is nothing on! Some people I know have some sort of blinds they put over the window to still enable brightness but prevent a lot of heat coming in...otherwise I know what you mean - on a good day my room will just feel like it has radiated!

Keep it up!

Anonymous said...

hi adam,

great effort!

i have a question..

do you think in this way you will continue in the future? market dynamics will be changed in the future? or basic fundamental consistant all time?

(sorry for bad english)


What do you think about it?

Anonymous said...

You mentioned the number of races you've traded in, however how many trades do you make on average per race?

Awesome results though...hope you keep it up!

Anonymous said...

Hi Adam, I would like to know what do you write to your statistics? Do you have an excel spreadshet with it? Or what kind of information is importatnt for you? Thanks for answer and good luck, Tomas

Anonymous said...

Other 'top' trader,s like it

Great work, probably best let the readers tell you that bit!

TJ said...

Hi Adam. Just out of curiosity are you using Betdaq at all?

Anonymous said...

Do you typically put a lot of trades through the market, or do you tend to be very selective about when you get involved? Do your bigger profits come from holding onto long positions exclusively, or do you often also make high profits (e.g. £50 plus) just from scalping? Thanks, Jess

Betting Exchange Trader said...

Great stuff.
Never liked the festivals - I guess it comes down to nerves - or maybe my strategy is just wrong! Always find that you have to sit in the market with a big lump and wait for what seems like an eternity...as the market moves slowly due to the high liquidity! Probably just my entry timing being off.
Dan

Anonymous said...

Adam,

On average,

How many trades do you make per race?

How many ticks profit do you make per trade?

Thanks

Matt said...

Hi Adam,
Just found your blog, it's a brilliant read and, without wanting to sound cheesy, bloody damn inspiring. I'm more into arbing myself, however your blog shows what trading can be achieve with hard work. I'm going to run through several dry runs and see how well I do before I commit any funds (if any!) to this.
Thanks again and well done so far.
(if you have any advice it would be much appreciated!)

Jeff Waters said...

Hi Adam

Are you planning to continue with your blog?

Jeff

Adam Heathcote said...

Hi Simon, that's a very good point! Sometimes I need to put things into perspective! Thankfully my percentage chance of success is higher than 60% at more like 80%. So the answer is I get involved at every opportunity I see. If they were lower at 50-60%, I don't know, if I knew I always had an edge, I would go in with the same attitude. If my confidence was knocked back, I'd probably fall back on my confidence and intuition to make the decision - but good question!

Hi John G, thanks for some advice. I do have a plant spray to spray my face with water - it's very addictive when you're hot! My office does have velux blinds, but the blinds themselves heat up and radiate heat!

Hi redbrix, good idea, I definitely gave it a thought!, but I think I may find other solutions!

Hi Anonymous, I believe I will be able to adapt to any market changes that are thrown at me, obviously with varying degrees of success, but I think I have the skills to always profit from horse racing markets in the future.

Hi Anonymous2, I'm not sure how many trades I average per race. Probably an average of say 10 - I think.

Hi Tomas, I keep very simple statistics of my trading, mostly being average I make per day and race - that's all. Personally, I don't think going into great detail is necessary, unless you are struggling or really want/need to squeeze out more profit than you're currently making.

Hi TJ, I don't use Betdaq unfortunately, I would love to though. But the ba***rds at Betfair have monopolised their position.

Hi Jess, my selections can vary a lot, it depends on the mood I'm in and the likelihood of a potential price move. Some of my big profits have come from holding out to get a good number of ticks.


Thanks to those who left positive and praising comments, they are very much appreciated.

Hi Anonymous2, as mentioned above, probably around 10 trades I reckon, on average. Number of ticks on average per trade I think is about 1 I think, taking into account losses.

Hi Jeff, of course I am carrying on with my blog!

Anonymous said...

Hi Adam,
Fantastic trading. How much do you rely on your intuition when trading. If your indicators are good and you have a bad feeling about it do you still get involved?
Have you used anchors to recreate a good state prior to trading. Reading your blog it sounds like you have a routine which would amount to the same thing.

Thanks
PK