Wednesday, 27 May 2009

Entry points

Entry Points
There are different types of entry points given the information you are basing the entry upon. These are:
  • Graph history
  • Weight of money
  • Book over-round
  • Price bands
  • Time before the off
  • Specific market tendencies; i.e. repeating patterns
  • Price movement; i.e. how far has the price already moved.
  • Price movement of another horse
  • Matched and unmatched bets
  • Commentators voicing opinions
  • No. of runners
  • Horses 'playing' up, etc.

All of these need to be taken into consideration when placing an entry - the better you can learn about every single one of these, and your ability to process them all very quickly will help you get a great entry point. I will keep the explanations brief as I could probably write a full blog post for each section!

Graph history
I think it's important to get to grips with using graphs religiously, as what has already happened is, in my opinion, a massive indicator of what is likely to happen. The less graph history there is, either using the Betfair graph or Bet Angel graphing, the harder it is to predict the future, but closer to the 5 minute mark before the off, the easier it is. But remember, never solely base your decision on one thing; you need to use a number of these indicators to make the right decision.

Weight of money
In my opinion, is important as ever; but never solely base a decision on just this. Watch money flowing in and out of the market and eventually you'll be able to judge at what points in time before the race where weight of money is a true reflection of potential price movements.

Book over-round
This is one of those facts that you don't need to be intuitive to understand; if the book over-round is close to 100%, you know that something has got to give way in the prices of the horses. A tip: most likely the one that has already been either drifting or steaming.

Price bands
If there are a few minutes prior to the off time, take a look on the far right column of the Bet Angel ladder interface. Here you will see the total amount matched for each price. If you see that 30K has been matched on every price between 3.2 and 3.5, then outside those prices the amount matched drops to 15K and less, you now know that the price has predominantly stayed between those prices for a while, and the graph is most likely to reflect that, so the price is much more likely to carry on staying between those two prices. Being aware of the time before the off is, in my opinion a very important factor for using this indicator.

Time before the off
Being aware of the amount of time before the race is due off I think is pretty important. For example if there is just 30 second to go before the off, there is much less chance of there being a massive swing in price, the same goes if there is only 10 minutes before the off. Making the connection between time and price movements will help you with your entry.

Market tendencies
You need to be aware of patterns in the market that are repeating. So for example, prices moving inside a price band - they usually see-saw between the upper and lower 'boundaries', but seldom in equivalent timings.

Price movement
If a price has moved from 2.0 to 3.0 for example, you should know that the price isn't just going to continue drifting forever out to 1000. Taking price movements that have already happened can help you make decisions about entry points. Taking the example of a move from 2.0 to 3.0, you should be much less inclined to then lay the horse at 3 given what's already happened.

Price movement of another horse
Say for example you have to favourites price equally at 3.0 If the price of one of the favourites started to drift, the price of the other favourite will more likely than not do the opposite. There are many more scenarios I've subconsciously learned I could explain, but that example gives the simplest explanation of what to be aware of.

Matched and unmatched bets
If someone jumped in the market and just backed a horse with £6,000 for example, the price is much more likely to go south; there are many explanations as to why, a couple being the weight of money has now changed, or £2,000 of that could have been traders, in which case they now need to get out. Unmatched bets simply add to the mixer of whether or not they are going to get matched, whether it's 'spoofing' - i.e. they don't want the money to get matched, and whether or not for example it's a punter's money and they are keen to get their money matched so they 'drag' their money down intentionally to get matched.

Commentators voicing opinion
If a commentator or a successful punter, e.g. Dave Nevison (when he's on a winning run!), starts explaining every reason under the sun why a certain horse can or cannot win, most likely people are going to react to them, therefore these opportunities can serve as an excellent entry point.

No. of runners
If there are only 2 runners for example, their prices will move nearly perfectly to each other; keeping a low book percentage. That's one of the easiest examples, but if you build up a picture of all the races you trade and remember the number of runners, you will start to see price movement patterns appear. Knowing and learning this can help with entry points.

Horses 'playing' up
This is well documented and known by everyone; if a horse plays up the price if going to drift and serves as a good entry point to lay the horse in question, or even back one of the other favourites if the horse is a strong contender.

While writing this, I felt I could have explained everything into a lot more detail - I never realised I actually analysed things subconsciously into so much detail so quickly whilst I trade. I will go into the technicalities with screenshots of specific examples another time. There may be a few more indicators I have forgotten to mention, I've listed all the ones I could think of whilst writing this.

I'll make my next post on exit points; it should be much simpler.

Regarding my challenge, it's going great. I didn't trade bank holiday Monday - I took the time to play golf and beat two of my friends! I did pretty appalling with 31 points, but it was only the 2nd time I played in over a year! Yesterday I managed to just scrape over £2,000 profit; all in all it was a pretty uneventful day (sounds silly I know) - I was auto-pilot the whole day.

23 comments:

Anonymous said...

Thanks very much, this is the things we need to know, Thanks Again.

Steve.

Sim said...

Amazing, thank you!

pt9091 said...

Hey adam,

Well done on the post its good to see a succesful trader giving away some good quality info especially when there are lots of others who have been doing it succesfully for so many years and are unwilling to give a little away! not that I want the fast route as I believe its best to go through the learning curve on your own, but info like this is priceless and certainly helps speed up the process!

Anonymous said...

Top man - looking forward to the screen shots etc already.

Well done and best of luck.

Steve Lewis said...

Thanks for that Adam. It's nice to have confirmation that i am on the right track at least.

Anonymous said...

Immensly helpful post adam thankyou for your help!

Jo Pearse

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the great breakdown of your entry indicators! Makes for a very interesting read.

Exit strategy - limit losses, ride a profit? :-)

Paul said...

Great post, Adam. I'll be studying it for a long while. Cheers

RacingFerret said...

Great post, some really helpful pointers there for someone like me looking to try this as a (hopefully profitable) sideline/hobby now that I'm a bit bored with poker. Hopefully some poker skills are transferable - quick decision making, understanding positive expectation bets, not "tilting" when you lose etc.

One question - in the "time before the of" bit you say there won't be a big swing 30s before the of, and the same goes 10 mins before the off...so at what point are there likely to be those big swings, also how long before the off do you start trading typically.

Cheers

Simon

Anonymous said...

Hi Adam,I look forward to all your updates as they are so informative and you my friend are a true inspiration, Thank you. I have just one question to ask. What specific Bet Angel "Advanced Chart Settings" within "Settings Editor" do you use mostly (ie Line, Candlestick, Interval, Data points, Back, Lay, Last Traded Price etc), Thanks Again,
Limerick Trader.

Anonymous said...

Hi Adam. Just wanted to thank you for taking the time and trouble to outline your excellent thoughts on entry points. I used most of them already but must admit I'd never thought about the overround - and will certainly be keeping an eye on it in future! Good luck with your challenge.
Fuzzer54

gettingbybutonlyjust said...

Not sure if my previous post got through, and just wanted to thank you Adam for taking the time and trouble to help fellow traders. Well done and keep up the good work.

John G said...

Wow, if Carlsberg wrote blog posts...

Anonymous said...

Couldn't quite understand the 10 minutes 'no swing' one either --- think this must have been a mistyping as there are often huge swings in the last 10 minutes.
Fuzzer54

Jeff Waters said...

Hi Adam

Very interesting post!

Do you use moving average crossovers at all?

Jeff

Pedro said...

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Betting Exchange Trader said...

Really good of you to give that kind of information away. I bet as opposed to trade (avoids premium charge) but it took me about a year of looking at the markets to pick up all of what you have just given to your readers - then maybe I am a slow learner! Well done.

Lou said...

Hi, thank you very much for this very informative post, I look forward to your post about the exit points,

Cheers
Lou

esclare said...

Nice post.
It will be good if you explain more detailed each point with examples and screenshots.
Thanks

Anonymous said...

Hi, Adam!

Nice to see someone who takes the time to inform and educate the average reader.

Do you use the Bollinger bands and the moving average from the charts to help you determine volatility and predict market swings?

Also, hardware question-what and how many displays/monitors do you use? What is the ideal setup in your opinion.

Are there any books on trading/or online information that you would recommend? I know you praise the betting academy course, but obviously the main thing is experience, after all, the course is several hours, and people spend months/years learning on their own.

Too many questions, I know, but am sure others will appreciate the answers as well.

Thanks a lot and good luck.

Adam Heathcote said...

Hi Simon, I think any time in between 10 minutes and 30 seconds are where moves are much more likely to happen. more specifically between 8 and 1 minute I guess. I start trading as soon as I see an opportunity, so that could be 10 minutes - or 15 if the gaps are 15 minutes.

Hi Fuzzer54, I don't mean within the 10 minute period, I mean with 10 minutes to go - if you get me.

Hi Jeff, I don't use moving average crossovers, personally I have never tried but I reckon they might work okay.

Hi Anonymous, I don't use Bollinger bands and neither do I use moving averages, but that's just me - it could be worthwhile to look into it. I have 1 large monitor which is 30". There aren't any books that I'm aware of, but reading a few of the blogs around are definitely worthwhile!

Free Poker Tokens said...

i Adam the point about matched and unmatched bets and how they affect the price, I don't really understand what you are say in the post is there anyway you could slightly elaborate on this to make it a bit clearer? thanks for the post.
Conor

Mellow said...

You can actually write a post about every single one of this points. Don't hesitate about the length... I think I speak in everyone's voice by saying... we can handle it ;).

Thanks!