One thing I do to make myself stay focused is to keep a tidy office. If the room's tidy, my thoughts are going to be much clearer and concise than if I was trading in a messy room. Clutter just seems to have this amazing ability to clutter my mind. I still forget to tidy it occasionally and not very surprisingly those are the days I am not very focused and trading at the lows of my ability.
I had a good week trading last week pulling in a respectable £8,000 before the premium charge. This week I've been fairly off the beat; busy with other ideas and extra curricular activities such as Argentine Tango which I've taken a liking to recently. Hopefully planning to go to the Nürburgring Nordschleife again soon for a two day track run which is exhilaratingly fun. A chance also to see some fine cars and practice my photography on cars zooming around the track.
Wednesday, 15 July 2009
Thursday, 9 July 2009
Exit Points
Exiting your trade is as vitally important as entering a trade. If you have made a poor entry position, you'll be falling back on to your exit trade to determine whether you make a non-profit trade or a terrible trade.
Horses 'playing' up
Never sit and hesitate too much on a trade, the more you hesitate, the more confidence you're draining from yourself - just get out of position and start again. This piece of advice is invaluable! The more you restart your trades, the more chance you give yourself from learning from mistakes. Also stop yourself from being in the 'what if' mentality. My flat mate used to do it all the time, saying things like 'If I got out a minute later, I would have got x more ticks and made £y more!' - it's time wasting and you're not paying attention to the market, holding yourself back from valuable market experience! It's also just negative thinking. You want to be as confident as possible.
Always remember: before you succeed, you must fail; take each loss positively with the mindset 'Yes I lost money, it was a bad trade, on reflection I did x and y wrong, next time I will try and do this' If you say this after every bad trade, you will undoubtedly improve. This statement is basically what I think an intuitive person repeats in their head subconsciously every time a mistake is made. I have sidetracked a bit from exit points, but it's still important to know.
I have been fairly consistent this last week, apart from today where I was not focused at all. I started poorly and was £500 down after 7 or so races. I then managed to finish £100 up - I decided to stop because I couldn't get in the zone (it happens). So I went to go shopping, got half way to Westfield and turned around because what I really needed was a deep breather and some music to calm me down from the rush I was in in the morning. Anyway I managed to turn the day into a £1250 profit; very gutting because the liquidity was good today with the Newmarket meeting and if I was on form and focused, I felt like I would have make a killing. Oh well, there are plenty more races in the future. I've started Argentine Tango lessons, which have been great fun, I'll talk about that another day - but ladies - watch out!
I'm currently on about £207k so far, I'm going to edit the challenge for the final time, making it £350k instead of £250k; I think it's more of a challenge to me which should help me refocus throughout the remainder of this year.
If you missed the entry points post you can find it here.
Instead of repeating myself, all of the entry points are important to be aware of when making an exit trade. There aren't really any new points so I'll just cover each point where I can add new information with a perspective of exiting a trade.
Weight of money
After watching so many races, I've developed a good sense of deciding when the price will stop moving in one direction and head in the other. The way the money gets matched is different to the way a false move does; it's subtle and unexplainable, but if you watch carefully you can eventually get a better judgment.
Book over-round
Similar to entry points, if you're in position on a horse drifting, the over round will most likely be edging between 102-4, so you'll want to keep your eye on this as when the book starts tightening you'll want to think about getting out. But remember, you can't just rely on this, over hundreds of races you will start to get a feel of when the best time to exit is around.
Time before the off
Be careful with about a minute to go before the race is due off. A fair number of people will be exiting their positions and in my experience it's harder to predict. I also find that trends will usually come to an end with about a minute to go as the markets find an equilibrium; so if you backed a horse going down, then would be a good exit point if it's been a constant steamer, the same goes for drifters.
Matched and unmatched bets
Try and keep a tally of matched bets in your head so you know what's been matched going what way, this will help you decide on when to exit your trade; based on every factor I mentioned in the entry points also.
Commentators voicing opinion
I find that once a commentator voicing an opinion, it takes about 5 seconds on average for people to react, depending on how strong the opinion is and who is saying it. So getting in position by then is good. Getting out I find that the stronger the opinion, the closer to 30 seconds is a good point to get out, where as if it's weaker, closer to 10 seconds. Remember these are all guides and nothing definite, it's just roughly what goes on in my head during these events.
The same rule I explained in commentators voicing their opinion should be used here also. The more extreme a horse plays up the longer you should wait before getting out; this time the extreme end could be minutes. A horse being stubborn as an example of a tiny play-up, then exiting the trade could be no more than 10-20 seconds after it happened.
Regarding stop losses, I personally seldom use them. I prefer manually controlling my position and being aware of my net position in my head. Stop losses are very good when predicting long term trends. One attitude I take is to get out if I have any doubt greater than a strength of 2-3/10 that the price will move against me. Sometimes very slightly higher if I'm doing long term trends because you need to ignore the subtle swings in prices. These 'mini' swings in prices can be quite predictable - they occur because everyone is always constantly unsure at which point the price will stop and/or head in the other direction.
Never let trades go in-play, it's gambling if you do it on purpose because you felt bad about getting out at your current loss. If you don't know anything about in-play betting, then it's simple; stay away from it. If you are one these people who are addicted or just have a habit of letting it go in-play, try setting accountability on this. So whenever you purposefully let a race go in-play half way through a trade, make yourself do something you don't want to do, like cleaning the toilet - if you don't follow through on it, you're only letting yourself down and you will most likely never succeed at trading if you can't introduce good habits.
Regarding stop losses, I personally seldom use them. I prefer manually controlling my position and being aware of my net position in my head. Stop losses are very good when predicting long term trends. One attitude I take is to get out if I have any doubt greater than a strength of 2-3/10 that the price will move against me. Sometimes very slightly higher if I'm doing long term trends because you need to ignore the subtle swings in prices. These 'mini' swings in prices can be quite predictable - they occur because everyone is always constantly unsure at which point the price will stop and/or head in the other direction.
Never let trades go in-play, it's gambling if you do it on purpose because you felt bad about getting out at your current loss. If you don't know anything about in-play betting, then it's simple; stay away from it. If you are one these people who are addicted or just have a habit of letting it go in-play, try setting accountability on this. So whenever you purposefully let a race go in-play half way through a trade, make yourself do something you don't want to do, like cleaning the toilet - if you don't follow through on it, you're only letting yourself down and you will most likely never succeed at trading if you can't introduce good habits.
Never sit and hesitate too much on a trade, the more you hesitate, the more confidence you're draining from yourself - just get out of position and start again. This piece of advice is invaluable! The more you restart your trades, the more chance you give yourself from learning from mistakes. Also stop yourself from being in the 'what if' mentality. My flat mate used to do it all the time, saying things like 'If I got out a minute later, I would have got x more ticks and made £y more!' - it's time wasting and you're not paying attention to the market, holding yourself back from valuable market experience! It's also just negative thinking. You want to be as confident as possible.
Always remember: before you succeed, you must fail; take each loss positively with the mindset 'Yes I lost money, it was a bad trade, on reflection I did x and y wrong, next time I will try and do this' If you say this after every bad trade, you will undoubtedly improve. This statement is basically what I think an intuitive person repeats in their head subconsciously every time a mistake is made. I have sidetracked a bit from exit points, but it's still important to know.
I have been fairly consistent this last week, apart from today where I was not focused at all. I started poorly and was £500 down after 7 or so races. I then managed to finish £100 up - I decided to stop because I couldn't get in the zone (it happens). So I went to go shopping, got half way to Westfield and turned around because what I really needed was a deep breather and some music to calm me down from the rush I was in in the morning. Anyway I managed to turn the day into a £1250 profit; very gutting because the liquidity was good today with the Newmarket meeting and if I was on form and focused, I felt like I would have make a killing. Oh well, there are plenty more races in the future. I've started Argentine Tango lessons, which have been great fun, I'll talk about that another day - but ladies - watch out!
I'm currently on about £207k so far, I'm going to edit the challenge for the final time, making it £350k instead of £250k; I think it's more of a challenge to me which should help me refocus throughout the remainder of this year.
Thursday, 2 July 2009
June
June for me was a very frustrating month with the heat in the office, the high standards I had set myself of my now target £2,000 a day and overall lack of motivation. I think the lack of motivation came from having reached my peak and knowing it would be nearing on impossible to match it; and when I could not produce the same results I did from Cheltenham at Ascot I was disappointed. Anyway, that was just where I stood. Without always wanted to do just that bit better every month I don't think I would be I am now - I had the burning desire to succeed. The markets were also different to what I was used to - randomness in the markets and the frequent low liquidity made for unpredictable times and lowered confidence. Some normality I feel is coming back, obviously without that punter who kept backing the favourite with large sums of money. I managed to make money off of him, but it held me back from getting in positions I would normally have gotten into. I also feel more motivated now that I know I can control the temperature in my office, I can stay cool during the day and keep much more focused.
On to my results. I traded 19 full days, with quite a few days where I traded just a few races. I profited £29,478.35 covering 305 markets. A much better return per race than I was expecting it to be. I am making all this money yet my bank balance doesn't seem to by increasing that much. I thought I had curbed my spending on gadgets, but somehow the money slips out the bank in many other ways!
Anybody that had emailed or left me a comment, I will be going through the past few weeks' over the next few days.
On to my results. I traded 19 full days, with quite a few days where I traded just a few races. I profited £29,478.35 covering 305 markets. A much better return per race than I was expecting it to be. I am making all this money yet my bank balance doesn't seem to by increasing that much. I thought I had curbed my spending on gadgets, but somehow the money slips out the bank in many other ways!
Anybody that had emailed or left me a comment, I will be going through the past few weeks' over the next few days.
Tuesday, 30 June 2009
The heat is on
Well this past week has been very busy for me. I took Thursday and Friday off in preparation for a house party I had, which ended with great success! The best party I have ever hosted.
I'm sure many of you, as well as myself, have been struggling with this heat. It's been so hot I was getting very agitated this morning trying to think of a solution. If you read a couple of posts earlier back, you'll know I was struggling with the heat. It really affects my decision-making and everything else that's needed to trade - mostly mental strength. It drains me and I've realised more than ever how important it is for me to work in a cool environment. I got to the point this morning that I was taking someone's advice on here and phoning around to see what office space with air conditioning was available within walking distance of me for the summer. There are two floors at the bottom of my block of office space that hasn't been in use for months and months, so I gave that a go, but they weren't interested, as it would only be for a couple of months. I have a portable air conditioning unit, but it's so loud I actually lost concentration the other day and lost several hundred in one race as a result of not being in a comfortable environment. Anyhow, I remembered I had a pair of Shure in-ear headphones - I put them in, and they instantly dramatically reduced the noise; with my music or the TV makes in completely bearable. I also repositioned the air con unit so that the air more specifically cooled the area I was in rather than the other side of the room. This is as well as the 76% heat reflecting film I have cover the whole of the window! So now I've got the heat sorted - I can focus my efforts back to pulling out some good results out of the bag which I have been really lacking of this month - which I think was down to the heat. It all links in with having a clear head whilst trading - which is so important if you want success in trading to come your way.
In the next couple of posts I will make sure I get that Exit Points post done soon. I'll do it after tomorrow's update of how June went for me, and my general overview of the markets. I'll try and strike a good balance between helpful information for to improve your trading, and information that isn't so useful; but may serve as a motivational source.
I'm sure many of you, as well as myself, have been struggling with this heat. It's been so hot I was getting very agitated this morning trying to think of a solution. If you read a couple of posts earlier back, you'll know I was struggling with the heat. It really affects my decision-making and everything else that's needed to trade - mostly mental strength. It drains me and I've realised more than ever how important it is for me to work in a cool environment. I got to the point this morning that I was taking someone's advice on here and phoning around to see what office space with air conditioning was available within walking distance of me for the summer. There are two floors at the bottom of my block of office space that hasn't been in use for months and months, so I gave that a go, but they weren't interested, as it would only be for a couple of months. I have a portable air conditioning unit, but it's so loud I actually lost concentration the other day and lost several hundred in one race as a result of not being in a comfortable environment. Anyhow, I remembered I had a pair of Shure in-ear headphones - I put them in, and they instantly dramatically reduced the noise; with my music or the TV makes in completely bearable. I also repositioned the air con unit so that the air more specifically cooled the area I was in rather than the other side of the room. This is as well as the 76% heat reflecting film I have cover the whole of the window! So now I've got the heat sorted - I can focus my efforts back to pulling out some good results out of the bag which I have been really lacking of this month - which I think was down to the heat. It all links in with having a clear head whilst trading - which is so important if you want success in trading to come your way.
In the next couple of posts I will make sure I get that Exit Points post done soon. I'll do it after tomorrow's update of how June went for me, and my general overview of the markets. I'll try and strike a good balance between helpful information for to improve your trading, and information that isn't so useful; but may serve as a motivational source.
Wednesday, 24 June 2009
Blag a million
Well, the Blag a Million project is officially under way and this Monday they blagged all my profit from the afternoon's trading session. Here is the video:
My progress has continued at the same rate as it did throughout May. The days are sunny, and sitting inside is a bit of a pain! I've been making the most of the sun when I can get some; a bit of sunbathing on the roof is quite fun and relaxing. My brithday's coming up, I'll be 24 and I'm heading down to Windsor racecourse for the day to gamble my money away with a group of friends. I'll try and get in the background shots of any filming like those goons you usually see who pretend to be minding their own business but are clearly trying to edge in on TV!, so if you're trading watch out for me!
Friday, 19 June 2009
Ascot (continued)
For the second day of Ascot I had similar success to the first day - although I took a big loss on the last race. I was in position and some punter who clearly wanted to back the favourite went against me, and lost me money!; sounds like Alan Sugar. Anyway the day was a result to be pleased with. Yesterday I struggled, I just wasn't 'up' for the days trading and I wasn't awake in my head. I played squash late in the evening and it showed - I just couldn't keep track of the scoreline, and every shot I kept playing was rubbish! I managed to finish up £1200, which by my standards was pretty poor; especially considering the higher liquidity at Ascot.
Normally what I've been doing lately is if I finished under £1000 for the afternoon trading session, and I haven't any plans for the evening, I'll trade the evening races to make it feel like I've put in a good effort for the day.
I'm really considering taking one day off in the week to pursue whatever I feel like doing. It should open up my career path, because at the moment my trading on Betfair feels like something I do just to make money, not something that I can be really enthused about. I'm thinking about starting a personal development blog/website initially for myself, but to share what I've learnt with others. I'll be sure to post up the link for anyone that might be interested in it - I think I'll start it next week.
Normally what I've been doing lately is if I finished under £1000 for the afternoon trading session, and I haven't any plans for the evening, I'll trade the evening races to make it feel like I've put in a good effort for the day.
I'm really considering taking one day off in the week to pursue whatever I feel like doing. It should open up my career path, because at the moment my trading on Betfair feels like something I do just to make money, not something that I can be really enthused about. I'm thinking about starting a personal development blog/website initially for myself, but to share what I've learnt with others. I'll be sure to post up the link for anyone that might be interested in it - I think I'll start it next week.
Wednesday, 17 June 2009
1st day of Ascot
Royal Ascot has started and I was very much looking forward to it. The big meetings bring higher liquidity, which, if you can learn to master those kinds of markets, can be worthwhile for your wallet! I did have a good day today. But they just didn't feel as good as Cheltenham was earlier in the year. Well, it was only the first day with 4 more to go! I've attached my P&L, what's funny about it is the start I had compared to the rest of the day. I've found that I can usually have a good day if my first result was a loss because it bumps me into action to say, 'come on Adam, get in the zone'.
I pulled a nice result out of the bag in the 15:45, mostly down to there being a drift on the horse in the final couple of minutes. Thankfully it stayed slightly cloudy yesterday so my room wouldn't heat up past my level of comfort. The forecast is cloudy over the next few days too, which I am very thankful for over the festival. I had my air conditioning unit on a couple of days ago. I started off with it in the room adjacent to my office, hoping it would cool that room enough so as to suck the heat out of this one!.. That didn't work so I put it in my office, a small 1.9m x 3.3m room. The noise was very loud. I don't think many people would be able to cope trading with what I had going on at one point - the air con, my music and the TV commentary; all within a metre of me! Pretty funny stuff.
I pulled a nice result out of the bag in the 15:45, mostly down to there being a drift on the horse in the final couple of minutes. Thankfully it stayed slightly cloudy yesterday so my room wouldn't heat up past my level of comfort. The forecast is cloudy over the next few days too, which I am very thankful for over the festival. I had my air conditioning unit on a couple of days ago. I started off with it in the room adjacent to my office, hoping it would cool that room enough so as to suck the heat out of this one!.. That didn't work so I put it in my office, a small 1.9m x 3.3m room. The noise was very loud. I don't think many people would be able to cope trading with what I had going on at one point - the air con, my music and the TV commentary; all within a metre of me! Pretty funny stuff.
Tuesday, 16 June 2009
Blag a million
Slightly off topic, but it's a challenge, similar to mine! - blag a million at www.blagamillion.com are these 2 guys, one of which is my friend, who are attempting to blag a million pounds in 3 months by doing everything and anything they can think of! It's going to be crazy. They are filming the whole thing; you can keep track of their progress by visiting their website once it's fully up and running starting on the 21st June. There's a big chance that it will take off and become big news within the 3 months so keep your eye out and join in wherever possible.
I will be taking part. I am offering/donating a day's trading towards their total! Hopefully just over a grand, or whatever total I can pull in on the day they film me will be a good start.
Hopefully I just don't have a losing day! You can join the facebook group here.
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